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Under The Sino US Trade War, The Price Of Waste Paper Has Been Soaring In The Off-season
- Apr 23, 2018 -

At present, an unprecedented trade war of great powers is affecting all walks of life in China. Although the paper industry has not yet been included in the list of tax increase, the whole industry has been full of wind and rain due to the high amount of waste paper from the US exports to China. After the Spring Festival, it was originally a traditional off-season for paper making industry, but it was surprising to the industry that the price of domestic waste paper has been rising rapidly in recent years.

The price of waste paper has reached a record high of the same period, up nearly 40% from the same period last year.

From the market trend of waste paper, the current price of waste paper is basically a straight upward trend. In April 17th, the price of waste paper in Shandong has reached 2500 yuan / ton to 2600 yuan / ton, and Guangdong Fujian area has reached 2800 yuan / ton. Compared with 3 months ago, the domestic waste paper price rose by 11.85%, which is nearly 40% compared with the same period last year.

"At the time when the paper industry is out of season, the price level has reached a record high from the same period of history." Qu Linru, a business analyst, said.

China's waste paper recovery has been the first in the world, and the waste paper recovery in 2016 reached 49 million 640 thousand tons, accounting for about 20% and 50% of the world and Asian waste paper recovery. However, in 2016, the recovery rate of waste paper in China was only 47.6%, much lower than that of Japan's 79% and South Korea's 90%. Meanwhile, China's consumption of waste paper is far ahead of the world, with consumption of 79 million 230 thousand tons in 2015, accounting for 33% and 59.3% of the world and Asian waste paper consumption. Therefore, China's current waste paper acquisition pattern shows a large amount of recovery and low efficiency.

With the expansion of the trade war and the coming of the peak season for paper industry, there is a serious phenomenon of channel stores hoarding.

At present, China's imports of waste paper mainly come from three places in the United States, Europe and Japan, of which the United States is the largest source of imported waste paper. In 2015, the United States imported 13 million 18 thousand tons of waste, accounting for 44% of China's total imports of waste paper. In terms of category, "2016 China paper Yearbook" data show that the main types of American waste import are waste cardboard, waste paper, office waste paper, and other mixed waste paper, accounting for 54.94%, 27.62%, 1.76%, 15.69%.

Waste paper is the main raw material of paper making, and the soaring price of waste paper will surely drive the downstream paper industry up. As a matter of fact, in 2017, the price of national waste has been a roller coaster market.

In 2017, the total import volume dropped by 10% compared with the total import volume in 2016. The domestic waste paper demand is about 78 million tons each year, and the import amount is about 35% of the total demand. The reduction of the foreign waste import needs to be supplemented by the national waste, but the domestic waste paper recovery rate is a slow process. In the first three quarters of last year, domestic waste paper prices soared all the way, and the highest had risen to nearly 3000 yuan / ton. But after the national day of 2017, the market sentiment gradually calms down, and the lowest drop to about 1750 yuan / ton, the biggest decline is more than 40%. After the Spring Festival of 2018, an unprecedented trade war between China and the United States broke out. Business analyst Qu Lin points out that the paper industry is not on the list of China's first batch of tax increases, but with the expansion of trade war, no one knows what impact the industry will have. In addition, the high season of the paper industry is coming, the whole market is rising to the market in the future. The phenomenon of the hoarding of the channel merchants is serious, which leads to the phenomenon that the low season is not weak and the price is soaring.

According to the forecast, with the tightening of domestic waste paper policy, the domestic waste paper prices in 2018 showed an overall upward trend.