When the demand for paper products is not clearly released, environmental supervision will bring a turning point to the paper industry, and the cost pressure makes the small enterprises at a competitive disadvantage, and the Matthew effect will appear. (editor's note: Matthew effect (MatthewEffect), refers to the strong Yu Qiang, the weaker the weaker phenomenon.
First, the stronger the Matthew effect on the paper industry
In the first quarter, the stock turnover of the listed companies of paper and paper products reached the highest level in the same period of five years, while the gap between the supply and demand of cardboard and corrugated paper in the domestic market has provided a new opportunity for the production capacity expansion of the paper industry.
Affected by the policy, the import threshold of waste paper is increased, which makes the production cost of paper enterprises under pressure. Domestic waste paper prices rapidly returned to the same temperature, while corrugated paper and box board market rose as a whole.
After experiencing demand pull and environmental protection capacity, the expansion rate of paper industry capacity has slowed down. The tighter environmental protection has speeded up the backward production capacity and the leading enterprises have the advantages of cost, scale and so on. In the case of no significant expansion of the demand side, the leading enterprises are expected to seize the market share quickly and put on the Matthew effect of the stronger.
Two, corrugated paper, box board production has not yet met the demand, leading enterprises layout new capacity
In recent years, the supply and demand of paper industry has increased steadily, creating a moderate production and marketing environment.
According to the annual report of China paper industry in 2017, there are about 2800 domestic paper and cardboard production enterprises in 2017, and the production of paper and cardboard in China is 111 million 300 thousand tons, up 2.53% from the previous year, and the consumption amount is 108 million 970 thousand tons, up 4.59% from the previous year.
In terms of category, the order of production in order is carton board, corrugated paper, uncoated writing paper, white board, living paper, coated paper and packaging paper.
By comparing the production and consumption of various varieties, we can see that the production capacity of domestic cardboard and corrugated cardboard has not yet fully met the demand of domestic enterprises.
In 2017, the production of box board in China was 23 million 850 thousand tons, up 3.47% from the previous year, 25 million 100 thousand tons of consumption, up 6.18% from the previous year; the production of corrugated paper was 23 million 350 thousand tons, up 2.86% from the previous year, 23 million 960 thousand tons of consumption, up 5.50% from the previous year.
In the past 2008-2017 years, the annual growth rate of the production of cardboard in China was 5.06%, and the annual average growth rate of consumption was 5.09%; the annual growth rate of corrugated paper production was 4.89% and the annual average growth rate of consumption was 4.94%.
The expansion of the supply gap between the two main products is a good opportunity for the relevant enterprises. The first quarter financial indicators showed that the basic level of the paper and paper industry listed companies was stable, and the stock turnover rate of each company rose slightly compared with the same period of the previous year, and was at the high of five years.
Chenming Paper's gross profit margin increased by 3.3 percentage points in the first quarter, and the ratio of net income to total profit exceeded 90%.
Fang Zheng Securities believes that the magnesite and newsprint production line transformation projects in Chenming paper have released production capacity in the first quarter. It is expected that annual production capacity of 300 thousand tons of needle pulp, 400 thousand tons of chemical wood pulp and 510 thousand tons of advanced cultural paper will be gradually put into production in the year, thus boosting performance.
The public information shows that Chenming paper has a production base in Shandong, Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangxi, Jilin and other places. The annual capacity of the pulp paper is more than 1000 tons. With the landing of new wood pulp, the company's wood pulp self-sufficiency rate is expected to be further promoted.
In addition, Shouguang Milan 400 thousand tons of chemical pulp project, 510 thousand tons of advanced cultural paper projects and Huanggang morning song 300 thousand tons of wood pulp projects are steadily promoted. After the project is put into production, the project will play an important role in strengthening the development of the enterprise and promoting the realization of the strategic objectives of the enterprise.
In the first quarter, the gross interest rate of the sun paper industry was raised by 4 percentage points compared to the same period. The proportion of sales, financial and management accounts for business income declined, and the quality of income increased steadily.
In the 2017 annual report, sun paper said the three major construction projects included the company's 200 thousand tons of high-grade special paper projects, 300 thousand tons of Laos chemical pulp projects, 800 thousand tons of Zoucheng high grade paper reconstruction and its supporting projects. In 2017, the project was steadily promoted in accordance with the project plan. The company started to implement 300 thousand tons of Laos in early 2018. Chemical pulp supporting projects, after the previous projects were put into production in 2018, the company's annual production capacity of paper and pulp will reach 6 million 20 thousand tons, including 2 million 100 thousand tons of cultural paper (including copper paper and non coated culture paper), 1 million 600 thousand tons of bovine leather suitcase paper, 120 thousand tons of living paper, 300 thousand tons of leaching paper, 100 thousand tons of Xerox paper. 100 thousand tons of industrial base paper, 500 thousand tons of dissolving pulp, 700 thousand tons of chemical pulp and 500 thousand tons of chemical pulp.
In the first quarter, 200 thousand tons of high grade paper projects in the sun paper industry are expected to be put into production in the first quarter, and the annual sales revenue is expected to be 1 billion 300 million yuan and the total profit is 140 million yuan. The two quarter, the Laos chemical slurry project is expected to be put into production, and the three quarter, the 800 thousand tons of high-grade sheet paper reconstruction and its supporting projects in the three quarter. The project is expected to achieve annual sales income of 2 billion 900 million yuan and total profit of 300 million yuan.
It is noteworthy that the sun biological material (US) company has been set up for more than a year, and the company says the company is responsible for the 700 thousand ton biological refining project in Arkansas, USA, and will carefully determine the implementation time and product planning of the project according to the project approval progress and market demand. It is expected that the project can become an efficient and environment-friendly wood pulp or paper product line in the North American pulp and paper industry after completion. The company aims to build an integrated system of forestation, pulp and paper with Laos and US projects to strengthen control over raw materials and strive to break the barriers between paper products.
The first quarter operating income of the eagle paper industry increased by 60.6% in the first quarter, and the non net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed companies increased by 13.72%, which is closely related to the company's management expansion strategy in recent years. At the beginning of 2018, the company acquired 100% shares of Liansheng paper industry, and the annual capacity of Liansheng paper industry will reach 1 million 50 thousand tons after the completion of technical modification. Therefore, the annual capacity of the paper business of mountain hawk paper is expected to increase from 3 million 580 thousand tons in 2017 to nearly 5 million tons.
Through new production capacity and industry mergers and acquisitions, the eagle has 5 large paper bases at home and abroad. The production base of packaging paper is distributed in Ma'anshan, Zhejiang Jiaxing sea salt in Zhejiang, Jingzhou public security of Hubei and Zhangzhou in Fujian, and North European paper industry in special paper production base in Sweden and Norway.
The issue of convertible bonds is approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The proposed investment project includes 1 billion 320 million yuan annual output of 2 million 200 thousand tons of high-grade packaging cardboard (three) and 1 billion 820 million yuan in Gongan County Yangjia factory town industrial park.
Three, the price increase is open, July or bounce back
In July 2017, the general office of the State Council issued the implementation plan for the reform of the import and export management system for the entry of solid waste into the entry of foreign refuse, and the regulations on the environmental protection and management of imported waste paper (hereinafter referred to as "the regulations") in December 2017.
According to the regulations, the enterprises that import waste paper should not only meet the requirements of the requirements for the environmental protection and management of solid wastes that can be used as raw materials for imported materials, but also conform to the production capacity of less than 50 thousand tons per year, and have a series of conditions for the production of pulping and papermaking, which are suitable for processing and utilization.
The data showed that in 2017, the production of 02689.HK was about 13 million tons, about 5 million 520 thousand tons of paper paper, 3 million 580 thousand tons of Mountain Eagle paper, 5 million 100 thousand tons in Chenming paper industry, 3 million 650 thousand tons in sun paper industry, 1 million 390 thousand tons in Jing Xing paper industry, 111 million 300 thousand tons in the whole industry and 2800 in paper and cardboard production enterprises in China. .
If the above leading enterprises are deducted from the total output, the average annual production of the other enterprises is only 28 thousand tons, that is to say, a considerable number of papermaking enterprises do not meet the annual capacity of 50 thousand tons of red lines, and can not be allowed to import waste paper.
In March 1, 2018, after a series of revised revised standards for environmental protection and control of solid wastes imported as raw materials, the import of solid waste, which can be used as raw material, was reduced from 66 to 2 categories and 18 kinds, and the control index of the entrainment was further tightened.
The cost of waste paper import channels has narrowed down to the cost of production of paper enterprises, and domestic waste paper prices have rapidly returned to temperature.
According to statistics, in Shandong, Guangdong, Fujian, Hubei and other areas, a number of small paper prices rose slightly, up in 50-200 yuan / ton, the paper industry prices have been quietly opened.
The market price of important production data in the field of circulation published by the National Bureau of statistics showed that the price of corrugated paper was 4781.7 yuan per ton in June 20th, which was high compared with the beginning of the year, but still at a distance from the highest price of 5730 yuan / ton in 2017; the pulp has continued to decline since the highest price of 6808.8 yuan / ton in 2017, and the current price is 6092 yuan / ton. It is slightly lower than the initial value of the year.
Wind financial terminal data show that the domestic market price of the box board has risen from the beginning of the beginning of the year. Up to June 22nd, the weekly average price of the North China region rose from 4648 yuan / ton to 5140 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year, from 4673 yuan / ton to 5426 yuan per ton in East China, and from 4575 yuan / ton to 5421 yuan / ton in Southern China.
In June, a number of paper enterprises have announced a shutdown. From June 17th to June 21st, the 600966.SH, Chenming Paper and Wanguo Sun White Paper Co., Ltd. all issued a stop letter, announcing the white cardboard shutdown for 7 to 10 days. After the shutdown, the three paper enterprises announced that the price of coated paper and white cardboard should be raised by 300 yuan / ton.
Dongguan Jinzhou Paper Co., Ltd. has been downtime and overhauled for 10 days from June 2nd, Dongguan Jian Hui Paper Co., Ltd. has stopped overhaul since from June 6th to 15th. Guangdong Richard Paper Co., Ltd. stopped from June 5th for 7 to 15 days, nine dragon paper (Dongguan) Co., Ltd. stopped from June 5th to June 10th, and the Chenming Paper Industry announced The copperplate paper factory has been suspended from June 13th till the end of the month, and Huatai Paper has been shut down for 10 days from June 6th to June 15th.
Southwest Securities Analysis said that the price of waste paper in June after the fall of the end of May rebound and high volatility. At present time, papermaking has not yet ushered in good stock season, paper demand is weaker, paper enterprise product stock has risen, paper price is in high position to maintain stability, rebound or appear in early July; in June, the demand for wood pulp still is weak, demand for price support is weak, Brazil region strike is over, pulp factory gradually resumed production. The shutdown or the impact of the output of more than 10 million tons, so in June, July, broad-leaved pulp outboard was reported to rise, but the spot market due to the early downstream paper factory raw material stock is sufficient, and the paper factory finished paper stock increase lead to the paper plant raw material procurement cycle extended, the spot market of wood pulp trading slightly light; cultural paper, although the price is back to the price back Fall, but the price of pulp paper is still higher than the same period, and because the pulp price is more than paper price, ton paper profit in the two quarter did not decline, still more than 20% of the increase, so the performance of the two quarter of paper enterprises do not worry over.
Four, more stringent environmental protection, more restrictions on external quota and other factors, the paper industry is facing a shuffle.
In June, with the state's constant attention to "green mountains and green mountains", Tianjin issued a plan for the prevention and control of air pollution, and the implementation scheme of the total emission reduction of major pollutants in Shaanxi was issued, which conveyed the signal of the local government to strengthen the supervision of the pollution of paper enterprises.
Recently, the Ministry of ecological environment inspecting Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and its surrounding areas, two paper enterprises appear in the summary table, which are the unorganized emission of industrial dust and the abnormal operation of the pollution control facilities.
In June 15th, the General Administration of Customs issued the rules for the implementation of the administration of the registration and registration of domestic consignee that can be used as raw materials for raw materials. It has been implemented since August 1st, requiring the enterprises that have already obtained the import of solid waste domestic consignees available as raw materials, which belong to the processing and utilization type, and should be promptly registered with the site of the industrial and commercial registration. The customs directly under the customs shall apply for the renewal of the new certificate; if it is a trade type, the registration automatically fails.
This means that the waste paper traders will lose the qualification to apply for the waste quota, and the paper enterprises and other waste paper processing enterprises will face more stringent requirements when applying for the quota.
The development trend of paper-making industry is analyzed. Under the drive of the supply side reform, the overlay of multiple factors, such as strict environmental policy, strict restriction of external waste quotas and strict inspection situation, is expected to reduce the amount of waste paper. The imbalance of the supply and demand of waste paper will promote the rise of the waste price and thus promote the downstream. In addition, the cost end pressure will squeeze out some small and medium-sized enterprises, and the concentration of the industry will continue to improve; the leading enterprises have obvious cost advantages, and the ability to transfer is strong and the profitability is expected to be further promoted. Market share will gradually increase, and small and medium-sized enterprises will be eliminated in the increasingly competitive process.
In June 15th, the General Administration of Customs issued the detailed rules for the registration and administration of domestic solid waste imported as raw materials.
According to statistics, up to now, a total of 66 enterprises have approved the 2018 annual import license of waste paper, totaling 10 million 844 thousand and 100 tons, compared with the number of import licenses in 2017 dropped by nearly 61%.
According to the public list of the solid waste and chemical management technology center of the Ministry of ecological environment, the twelfth batch of approved imports is only 23 thousand tons, while the fourteenth batch of imports of imported products are zero.
From the quotas of foreign waste imports, mountain hawks, Richard and nine dragons account for more than half of the total, and the difference between the waste and waste of the country makes the cost - end advantage of the higher quotas obvious.
The advantages of leading enterprises are not only reflected in the transfer and expansion of capacity.
Zhongtai Securities pointed out that the forest pulp paper layout advantage of Chenming paper industry is remarkable. The self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp in the domestic cultural paper industry is high. In 2017, the production capacity of the homemade pulp of the company reached 3 million 324 thousand tons, the production of homemade pulp was 2 million 94 thousand and 900 tons in the current period, and the self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp was 69.16%. On the one hand, the homemade wood pulp can save about 1600 yuan more than a single ton of foreign pulp, and the cost advantage is significant, and the company's gross interest rate is guaranteed to continue in the same industry. On the other hand, the price of the pulp of the pulping raw material is relatively stable, so that the enterprise has a competitive advantage.
According to China Thai securities, the single ton paper cost can save about 150 yuan, about 3% of the current price of paper and paper paper, and the cost control advantage of the company is expected to be highlighted in the context of the limited new self-made power plant.
Huatai Securities Analysis believes that China's paper industry has driven the industry fast development before 2010, 2010-2014 years of capacity expansion overlay environmental protection to capacity hedging stage, and has stepped into the early stage of production capacity, the capacity expansion of paper industry has slowed down, and the ring insurance has accelerated backward production capacity and leading enterprises With its advantages such as cost and scale, the industry is expected to grab market share quickly and drive further concentration of industries.
From the experience of the development of the paper industry in the United States, China's per capita paper consumption is still low, and the industry still has room for growth. After the completion of the production capacity, the profitability and profit stability of the leading enterprises are expected to improve.
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