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Paper Industry Is A Heavy Catalyst: Paper Implementation Is Near + Replenishment In March
- Feb 25, 2018 -

1) the number of strict standard import waste paper refund cases increased, and the leading paper enterprises with independent recycling channels benefited


The standard for checking the impurity of imported waste paper will be reduced from 1.5% to 0.5% from March 1, 2018, and the case of imported waste paper has been significantly increased since the second half of 2017.


In order to meet the requirements of stricter new regulations, we need to increase the overseas sorting process, taking into account the large capital investment, and the leading enterprises that have independent recycling channels have prominent advantages.


In the nine dragons, man and eagle as an example, if imports assuming 50% of the need to increase investment, and the investment amount of 600 yuan / ton, respectively, to increase investment in overseas 24/11/8 billion yuan, compared to the 2017 EBITDA81/58/37 billion scale, with short-term overweight overseas investment.


2) the high price gap of the waste paper gap is maintained, and the new capacity is lagging behind.


Supply side: the volume of waste paper imports is expected to fall to about 20 million tons in 2018


In 2017, the amount of waste imports fell to 25 million 720 thousand tons and continued to decline in 2018. It prohibits the import of non sorting waste paper (4 million 910 thousand tons) and the cancellation of waste paper traders' qualification (2 million 610 thousand tons). In March 1st, the implementation of new regulations with impurity rate or further reducing the import quota, it is estimated that in 2018, the import amount of waste paper will be reduced to about 20 million tons.


Demand side: in the year after year, there is a 50% growth space in the single month industry


According to industry experience, due to the shutdown of the Spring Festival in February, the industry startup rate is only 60%, and the number of paper enterprises inventory is usually reduced to 1-2 weeks before the year (the normal stock is about 15-20 days). After the year, with the capacity to resume production, the single month industry stock often has 50% growth space (about 1 million 600 thousand tons of new paper demand).


Price end: internal and external price difference or rapid expansion


It is expected that the strength of the external waste will be greater after year, and it is also the demand season of waste paper. It is expected that the domestic and foreign waste price difference is expected to reach even the level of the current period.


New capacity: progress lag, raw material price increase paper price


3) emission permits look at the competition pattern, and the cost advantage of the faucet is expanded


Statistics show that a total of 3073 paper-making enterprises get emission permits. There are 1669 enterprises with waste paper demand, accounting for 54%, and the emission permits correspond to 1.51 billion tons of waste paper.


Concentrated in Guangdong (30 million 210 thousand tons / year), Zhejiang (20 million 170 thousand tons / year), Jiangsu (15 million 830 thousand tons / year) and Shandong (15 million 290 thousand / year) and other eastern coastal areas, the waste paper demand and import waste paper customs overlap degree is high, supply contraction has great influence.


4) Company: shanyingzhiye and sun paper


It is estimated that after the strict implementation of the policy of impurity rate in March 1st, the rise of the national waste price will promote the profit differentiation of the large and medium-sized paper industry. The leading paper industry is expected to get more external waste lines, and the rate of return is lower than that of other small and medium-sized enterprises. It has the ability to replace the waste paper, and the three main line of investment is:


A corrugated box board, A shares leading shanyingzhiye (production capacity of 3 million 540 thousand tons, external waste accounted for more than 60% tons of paper, a profit of $570) and Hong Kong stocks leading the company of corrugated box board


Two is the wood pulp replacement capacity, the leading Sun Paper Industry (independent research and development of fiber material as a substitute for waste pulp, lower cost and better quality).


Three other waste paper to benefit from the subject (in Bohui paper retaining production of 500 thousand tons, gypsum board downstream demand is stable)