In the 4~5 month of 2018, the original paper market showed a thrilling price rise, especially the corrugated paper with the largest packing paper. The price soared to close to 6000 yuan per ton. It was rare that the cardboard and whiteboard and so on followed. The packaging paper rose more than a thousand yuan per ton, which was not the same as the "big earthquake" in the packaging industry. A lot of corrugated packaging enterprises are terrified, unprepared, and even complain.
Many corrugated packaging enterprises, because the price of the original paper market in March 2018 is in a steady and slightly lower situation, and the stock of the stock before the Spring Festival in 2018, so after the production and consumption, there is a waiting and wait-and-see mentality, not replenishing stock in time. At the same time, in March, most of the new packaging supply contracts were signed. In April, they could only sell at high prices and sell at low prices. This passive state is "not to be called every day, but not to the ground". It can only be relied on the strength of the enterprise itself. Many corrugated packaging enterprises are shouting "the price of base paper can't be increased again", but they have joined the ranks of the army buying the raw paper. For a time, the paper market is filled with smoke, a battle for the original paper is becoming more and more fierce. The vehicles shipped by the paper mill line up the long dragon day and night. Some enterprises have remittance a little later, the original paper is sent to other customers and has to be rearranged to wait.
But in the late May 2018 to the beginning of June, the price of the original paper dropped 50~80 yuan per ton. At the moment, the hot paper market cooled, which made some corrugated packaging enterprises hold the currency, buy or not buy it? Is the original paper rising or falling in the second half of the year?
Will the price of original paper fall or rush in the next half of the year?
In view of the slight decline in the prices of base paper from late May 2018 to early June, there are various opinions in the industry.
Some say that they will probably rise sharply as they did in 2017, which will follow a sharp fall. The reason is: now all the corrugated packaging enterprises have been full in stock, plus the South market has already entered the off-season of packaging in June, even if the packaging market is strong in the northern market, because of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in early June, the production and manufacturing enterprises around Qingdao are all included in the period of limited production and shutdown, and the demand for corrugated paper is weak. The stock of paper mills has increased sharply, and the capacity of the library has to be reduced.
Some say that the price of raw paper may go up to a new high. The reason is: the corrugated packaging market looks flat, in fact it is depressed, a large number of demand is covered by the current stop production, the phenomenon of limited production surface. In the second half of the year, the manufacturing industry will increase more than two times, the demand for packaging is also bound to soar. The stock of corrugated packaging enterprises is generally around 3000~5000 tons. The volume is only less than two weeks' production volume. When the packing order increases rapidly, the base paper will go up.
In other words, it may be maintained at this present price, even if it has fluctuated or lowered, it will not exceed 100 yuan / ton. The reason is: the country has loosened the policy of "American waste", and the domestic waste paper prices have declined in different degrees. In May 25th, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang, Shandong and Anhui declined by 80 yuan and 150 yuan, the price of raw materials has decreased and the price of paper enterprises will be reduced, and the price of natural paper will also be stable. Or a drop.
All kinds of analysis seem reasonable, but which one is consistent with market rules? In other words, who is closer to reality and more reliable? Or is the price of raw paper in the next six months "true" or "false"?
Paper maker: when the price rises, I don't know. Maybe the boss will make a phone call up!
From late May 2018 to early June, the prices of the raw paper used for packaging in various paper-making enterprises have been reduced to varying degrees. How about the price of raw paper entering the second half of the year? Recently, on this issue, Xiang Jiulong, Chenming, century sunshine, Eagle hawk, and Li Wen, some of the paper industry's sales elite, are seeking advice. The answer is: we can't see clearly this month's market, let alone half a year!
Although it has ridicule and self mockery for the current raw paper market, it also points out the uncertainty of the raw paper market. We all agree that whether there is uncertainty or not, there are rules for everything, and the raw paper market is no exception. Analysis and judge the market of the original paper, a look at the raw material market for paper making; two see the policy of "solid waste" by the state; three to see the demand of the packaging market; four to see the sales strategy of each paper company; and five to see the import of packaging paper.
Waste paper, recently due to the decline in the national waste index, the overall decline in the trend of the country waste, although the following batch of foreign waste gradually issued a small number of quotas, but it is not expected that the export quota is completely short of the situation. In addition, the use of new materials in papermaking enterprises has also increased R & D investment. Crop stalks and reeds can replace waste paper as raw materials. As for whether the price of waste paper will change again, we can only wait for it to change.
In the packaging market, in recent years, the corrugated packaging market has been on the rise, especially with the development of e-commerce, logistics, express industry, and even a variety of vegetables, fruits and other agricultural products are also packed in corrugated carton boxes. In the second half of 2018, the demand for the packaging market is rising steadily in the second half of 2018, the production capacity of the industrial enterprises using packaging is expanding, and the new manufacturing enterprises are increasing gradually. In addition, various kinds of fruits and vegetables, grain and oil and other agricultural products are in good shape in 2017. The rise of new high-tech farms in various places and a fire for the exuberant packaging market . More importantly, the export commodities which are oppressed by the "trade war" before May are expected to accelerate growth. This is undoubtedly a very good thing for the packaging market. Of course, it is bound to increase the demand for packaging base paper.
Because the paper industry in the local area from late May to the early June is stopped and limited, the stock of paper enterprises is relatively reduced. In this case, the paper enterprises may initiate a new round of rising tide. As for 50 yuan or 100 yuan continued to rise, or a rise in a few hundred, or a step up in place, it depends on the leadership of the paper giant and the timing of the choice, if up to the strategic level, it should be known as the marketing strategy. In fact, the reality is that we must make up for the loss during the production. Is it not a fool to have a chance to make money? As a paper industry source said, "when you ask me when to raise prices, I am a sales director, but I do not know that the top executives do not necessarily know." It is possible that the boss will open his eyes in the morning and raise the price of a phone call. It may be 100 yuan, maybe 500 or 1000 yuan. That's not true.
The higher price of packaging paper in the second half of the year
The instability of the packaging paper price, the stimulation and pain brought to the industry, forced the packaging enterprises to cooperate with the importers to import the original paper. As the import price is relatively lower than the domestic price, it is not only profitable, but also the gap in the domestic paper market, to a certain extent, it inhibits the continuous rise of the original paper price, which is the advance. The advantages of the original wrapping paper. The disadvantage is that the logistics cycle is long and the fastest time is about a month. However, judging from the use of imported base paper, tensile strength, ring crush strength or bursting strength can not be compared with that of domestic base paper. Therefore, the choice of imported base paper should be determined according to the characteristics of customer demand, and customers must be discreetly purchased for demanding customers.
In addition, some papermaking enterprises, in order to solve the raw material tension and reduce the cost, choose to go out and run the paper mills abroad, such as Vietnam, Burma and other Southeast Asian countries. These countries not only have rich bamboo and wood resources, but also do not restrict the waste paper resources from Japan, the United States and Europe. More importantly, the labor costs are low. At the same time, the enterprises can also enjoy the support of the preferential policies of the country. Obviously, this is very helpful for stabilizing the price of domestic base paper and easing the contradiction between supply and demand.
The base paper for packaging is likely to continue to rise in 7~8 months, with a slight reduction in 9~10 months, and will continue to rise in 11~12 months. In a word, the price of the packaging paper market will still be unstable, and we hope that the industry friends will replenish their stock in time according to the business conditions and their own conditions, but not to recommend a large amount of hoarding.
At the end, we remind friends that we should pay close attention to the policies and regulations of the country's environmental protection and import waste paper, and pay close attention to the production situation and the adjustment of the sales policy of the big paper giants.
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