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Analysis On The Price Trend And Development Prospect Of China's Paper Industry In 2017
- Feb 01, 2018 -

(1) supply and demand are in a state of weak balance, and the price rise boosts the price of paper.

1, rising cost, environmental pressure booster paper price up, the industry boom since 2016 has been significantly improved

Since 2008, the situation of the paper industry has been greatly fluctuated, which can be roughly divided into 2008-2011 years, 2012-2015 years and three stages in 2016. 2008-2011 years after the financial crisis, the paper industry rebounded in four trillion under the stimulation of performance, the main paper prices rebound; 2011-2015 years, the downstream demand growth slowed, excess capacity is more, the main paper factory price fell sharply, the overall economic decline, at an average annual rate of 2013-2015 in the depth of the adjustment period, the price of paper is low, industry low boom continues to run for half a year; low pulp prices in 2016 have a positive effect on paper enterprise profitability, the second half of a substantial increase in the price of paper products and paper enterprises expand the profit space, the industry boom picked up significantly.

(1) 2008-2011 years: demand recovery after the financial crisis led to the rise of paper price

(2) 2012-2015 years: downstream demand growth slowed, production capacity was released, paper prices fell after a large decline in low position

In 2012, by the macroeconomic impact of the deterioration, the downstream demand growth slowed, paper-making industry boom decline, coupled with the new capacity investment, increasing short-term paper market oversupply situation, as part of a paper production capacity of excessive focus on the release of demand in the market downturn, the main paper factory price fell sharply. Overall economic benefits of the industry downturn, profit margins narrowed.

In 2013 the paper industry is still in the depth of substantive consolidation, the industry boom degree has not changed, paper and paperboard consumption of the first negative growth, the main types of paper prices remain low, 2014 paper and paperboard production and consumption have rebounded, mainly for paper factory price is still low.

The paper industry has eliminated 39 million 720 thousand tons of backward production capacity (ten thousand tons) in 2010-2015 years.

Since 2002, the concentration of industry has been increasing, and the trend of concentration increase in 2011-2016 years is more obvious.

(3) from 2016 to the present: the lower cost of pulp operation in the first half of 2016, the higher cost in the second half of the year and the promotion of environmental pressure to boost the price of paper

In the first half of 2016, the price of pulp was low, and the management of the purchase of raw materials could reduce the cost effectively and expand the profit space in the first half of 2016. The second half of the rise in raw material prices, delivery of the implementation of the new regulations, coal prices lead to paper prices submitted paper product prices, capacity to show the effect of environmental regulation, the macro background of strict, paper prices will cost the successful transfer to the downstream, and expand their profit space, in the fuel dealers, the number of shuangjiaozhi month prices rose as high as 22%, white cardboard, white paper, double copper paper and other paper products prices rose by more than 40%, as of September this year, corrugated box plate prices rose as high as 70%, 90%.

Since the beginning of September 2016 rose more than 20% China coal price index

Since September 2016, the price of pulp has risen by about 20%

The quotation of foreign paper began to go up in March 2016 (US dollar / ton)

201609-201703 off shore price increase by more than 25% (US dollar / ton)

White cardboard prices continued to rebound in May -2017 in October 2016, and the white cardboard Maori

Whiteboard prices rose sharply in September 2016 -2017 March, and whiteboard Maori increased significantly.

September 2016 -2016 December, April 2017 so far, the price of cardboard and paper has risen sharply

Corrugated cardboard and the price trend is similar, but at the end of February 2017 -4 month price callback rate is greater

In September 2016 -2017 mid June double copper paper prices continued to rise at the end of August this year, prices upward signs

Offset price trend and double copper paper similar to mid June to the end of July the callback rate is about 9%, the end of August started up

At first, the price of pulp and waste paper increased. Due to the strong bargaining power of paper mills in the industrial chain, paper enterprises could easily transfer the cost to the downstream and raise the price of paper products. But the trend and expected market prices continued to rise during the formation of paper products, dealers and packaging printing enterprises, the printing enterprises have caused more than normal power stockpile inventory stock, boost the rising price of paper. When pulp mills and pulp dealers realize that the profits of paper and paper dealers in the industry chain are all rising from the rise of paper prices, they also have incentives to raise pulp prices and share dividends from the industry boom. In the interaction of many, the end of last year to the first half of this year the price of paper rose sharply, although the two quarter price callback, is still in the high prices, strong bargaining power industry chain enterprises can profit from the weak bargaining power of enterprises may therefore lose profit loss.

According to statistics, paperboard, corrugated paper continued growth in January this year, -3 months of social inventory, then because of the price of paper callback, the social stock gradually downward, the white paper social inventory since February of this year continued to increase, confirms the dealers in this round of paper price of the "fire" effect.

With the rise of paper prices, the finished product inventory of paper and paper products continued downward from October 2016 to February 2017. The inventory of finished products increased from February to May this year, showing a reverse trend with sales and downstream demand.

The social inventory of 2016.12-2017.02 corrugated board has increased significantly (ten thousand tons)

The inventory of finished products in 2016.10-2017.02 industry declined significantly (100 million yuan)

2 kinds of paper, subdivision development space: Living paper and corrugated box board is larger than the white card, and white space is larger than other kinds of paper

From the breakdown of paper demand, domestic paper and corrugated board box demand is growing faster, the other white cardboard, paper has been stagnant or declining phenomenon. At present, household paper, corrugated box board, consumption growth is higher, the life of paper nearly three years of production and consumption with the growth rate as high as 5%, box board, corrugated paper production and consumption growth rate is 4%; packing paper, uncoated printing and writing paper (mainly double tape) of packaging paper with growth of about 2%, uncoated printing paper with the growth rate of about 1%; white paper, coated printing paper fell slightly, newsprint consumption fell sharply, the downstream demand rapid contraction.

At present, the consumption of paper, board and corrugating is higher in life

Newsprint consumption slumped

The output and consumption of packaging paper increased by 2% in the last three years

The annual output of the whiteboard has increased by 1% in the last three years, and the consumption is declining.

The output and consumption of corrugated paper increased by about 4% annually in the past three years

In the last three years, the output and consumption of carton paper increased by 4% (ten thousand tons).

The consumption of newsprint declined by 23% (tens of thousands of tons) in the past three years.

The supply and demand of coated paper has fallen by about 0.7% (ten thousand tons) in the last three years.

The supply and demand of uncoated printed paper increased by 1% in the last three years

The annual output consumption of living paper has increased by about 5% in the past three years.

(two) the trend of long-term development: strong discourse power of large enterprises and the increase of consumption of wood pulp

1. The unqualified small enterprises are eliminated, and the big enterprise discourse power becomes stronger

As of May 2017, the national scale of 2328 paper companies, reducing more than 600 compared to 2014, the number of large-scale paper-making enterprises continued to decline since 2014, small enterprises have been eliminated, and the discourse power of big enterprises to strengthen, CR5 and CR10 respectively from 20% in 2010 29%, increased to 28% in 2016, 39%. That 13th Five-Year will continue to eliminate backward production capacity, not qualified small and medium-sized enterprises will exit into the discourse of big enterprises in environmental protection gradually increased, so as to obtain the bargaining power and cost transfer ability and greater market share.

2. The increase of the consumption of wood pulp

On the one hand, waste paper, waste paper to reduce the source of price increase, in order to ensure the supply of raw materials, enterprises need to enhance the pulp consumption proportion; on the other hand, the upgrading of consumption, improve the quality of paper products required to enhance the performance, to pursue a high grade, low weight and high strength, from the perspective of raw materials also need to improve the proportion of wood pulp used.